Facing the black swan of your operations
If you don’t know your company’s black swan, it’s time to face it, says Greg Solecki, an associate director of emergency planning at Sandhurst Consulting in Calgary. The company specializes in training leaders in crisis planning and responses.
A term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of risk engineering at NYU’s Tandon School of Engineering, a black swan is defined as: “First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”